Jon And Chantel

Ready to Have Your Mind Blown? “Chance of Rain” in the Forecast Doesn’t Mean What You’ve Always Thought It Means

The phrase “mind blowing” gets thrown around a lot on the Internet . . . but this truly deserves it.


There’s a TikTok video going viral right now from a woman who said she just found out the “chance of rain” in a weather forecast doesn’t mean what we have always thought it means.


30% does NOT mean there’s a 30% chance it’s going to rain.


That 30% is based on what the chances that it’s going to rain are multiplied by the percentage of the area that will get the rain.


So “50%” in the forecast doesn’t mean there’s a 50-50 chance it will rain.  It means there’s a chance rain will happen in the area, multiplied by how much of the area will probably get that rain.


So if a meteorologist is 50% sure there will be rain that will cover 80% of the local area, that would come out as . . . 40% on the weather forecast.


@sydjkell##stitch with @sooklyn ##ColorCustomizer I have toooo many of these. I’ll do another weather one. ##embarassing ##iwastodayyearsold

♬ original sound – Syd

Download Mix 105.1's App


* indicates required


  • Jon Watkins

    For the past 15 years, Jon has been waking you up doing morning radio here in Utah! Originally from Long Beach, California, Jon spends his time driving his kids from sports to birthday parties, blotting the grease off his pizza and complaining about how cold the winter is. Jon and his wife Jenn love to travel and even do a travel podcast together called, “Our Savings Starts Tomorrow.” If you ever see Jon out and about, make sure to say hi! He’s desperate for attention

To Top